2013/14 Premier League Preview

I'm late to the party on this one having spent the week chasing down a living, writing for other outlets that have *gasp!* deadlines, and trying desperately to divine what exactly is going to happen in the Premier League this season.

Direct deposit hit the bank on Tuesday.

Cottagers Confidential has its posts.

I have absolutely no idea.

Two out of three ain't bad?

To compound my inability to make sense of all the managerial ins and outs, player comings and goings, and run-of-the-mill transfer window intrigues, I recently finished reading a very good, very thorough book by Chris Anderson and David Sally called The Numbers Game. If you haven't read it, definitely pick it up. It's an engaging read and supports, argues, and distills further some of the arguments presented by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski in Soccernomics. 

It's all regressions and standard deviations and valuations and various other permutations of that mythical language some call "math", but what hit me like a ton of bricks is Anderson and Sally's argument that soccer, even at the highest level, in any given match, is basically 50% chance. They cite something called the Poisson distribution and go on about Prussian horses, all of which is very interesting and informative, but did nothing to re-inflate me after learning that picking a winner in a top flight match is little more than a coin flip. How on earth can anyone pick a champion before any of the 38 matches in a team's season have been played? Before the summer transfer window has closed? Before the winter transfer window has even opened? Before Ryan Shawcross has caused a compound tib/fib fracture of your team's star striker? Before Luis Suarez has bitten someone else, someone who might be playing in another league as we speak because remember that thing I just wrote about the transfer windows and their closing and opening?!

Basically, anyone who predicts with confidence what will happen in the Premier League this season, and anyone who ridicules you for your predictions, is full of shit. That won't stop me from gloating though if I get it right. On to the predictions!

As I've said before, the Premier League is a contest to get into the top four spots and avoid the bottom three. Everything else is just window dressing. You can name your best friends and your worst enemies, but most people you know fall somewhere in between. If you're arguing, for example, whether West Ham will finish 14th or 15th, you're wasting your time. 50% chance is probably the difference between 17th and 5th.

My top four:

1. Chelsea - This is actually a pretty popular pick. Jose Mourinho, the Prodigal Son, has returned to Daddy Roman's loving fold more tempered, savvy, and insightful after years abroad and a little bit of humble pie served up courtesy of Iker Casillas and Sergio Ramos. He's new - but not really - and he's inheriting an expensively assembled side of world class soccer players who seem a good mix of young and old.

"To win Premier League second first time of asking would be...fantastic."

My one concern, were I a Chelsea supporter, is who is chosen to lead the line. In the preseason, Mourinho often opted to use a 4-2-3-1 formation with a lone striker making runs to the corners while Victor Moses, Eden Hazard, Oscar, and Juan Mata cut toward the center of the opposition's defense. The "1" in this system is currently a three way competition between Demba Ba, Fernando Torres, and Romelu Lukaku.

Not being sentimental, I think Mourinho would like to throw Lukaku in feet first, but Torres has cost previous managers their jobs and Abramovich may still be clinging to the illusion that he can squeeze some sort of value out of the ludicrous fee he paid for Torres in 2011.

I have to think Roman has learned his lesson and that Mourinho wouldn't be back unless an understanding had been reached between he and the Chelsea owner. With a dominant central striker; the plethora of attacking talent Chelsea has in midfield; strong holding midfielders; a steely back line; and the helmeted hero in goal, I think Chelsea could be poised to bring the trophy back to Stamford Bridge.

2. Manchester City - One of the other tenets of The Numbers Game is that he who spends wins. Sheikh Mansour has certainly spent and with the arrivals of Stevan Jovetic, Alvaro Negredo, Fernandinho, and Jesus Navas, that trend is clearly continuing apace. I literally cannot fathom having the options Manuel Pellegrini has when writing names on the team sheet and that sort of depth of quality has to produce enough wins for second, doesn't it? Doesn't it?!

Pellegrini is much more low key than Roberto Mancini is and the deflection of attention off the sideline and onto the pitch may actually benefit Manchester City's menagerie of Goldfingers. I put City at second mostly because Pellegrini is new and has admitted he will need to adjust to the Premier League game. Also, I have a visceral reaction to so much expensively assembled talent. Also, also, Human Rights Watch just released a report suggesting that the Sheikh Mansour is using Manchester City's positive brand equity to draw attention away from the human rights abuses his government perpetrates in the United Arab Emirates. So there's that.

3. Manchester United - No one wants to be the guy who follows a legend. You want to be the guy who follows the guy who follows the legend. David Moyes apparently did not get this memo and I can't see anything but a rough season ahead for the Red Devils' new manager.

With the caveat that there are 1 1/4 transfer windows still to go, United have only made one marquee signing in Wilfried Zaha and are, frankly, embarrassing themselves with their continued pursuit of Cesc Fabregas. Moyes appears desperate to sign a creative tux-wearer in midfield and to do so in the sort of flamboyant style that gets the collective Old Trafford heart all aflutter. But his continued failure to do so is raising alarm bells and distracting Moyes from the very real possibility that said creative tux-wearer is already in the side in the form of Shinji Kagawa. C'mon Moyes, act like you've been here before! A little confidence, imperturbability, and je ne sais quoi go a long way.

Additionally, there's the inconvenient fact that Wayne Rooney wants out in the worst way and would seemingly love to find himself in the jersey of one of United's worst rivals. I can't see this situation resolving itself until Rooney has been shown the door. In other words, don't expect much of him in a United jersey at all this campaign. How many of Robin Van Persie's goals came from Rooney directly? Or even indirectly by runs Rooney made to create space? Losing your talisman, even with an heir apparent banging 'em in like it's going out of style, is no small thing.

Anything less than the league trophy is a disappointment for United fans. This isn't the composed we're-taking-Van Persie-from-Arsenal-and-there's-nothing-you-can-do-about-it United of last year's vintage. This is the make-eyes-at-and-get-rejected-by-Fabregas-while-Rooney-throws-a-tantrum-and-Moyes-complains-about-the-fixture-list-because-that's-what-Ferguson-would-have-done-but-it-doesn't-come-off-as-ornery-just-pathetic-because-Moyes-Isn't-Ferguson United.

Jesus, I'm going to have to get used to using the space bar again.

4. Arsenal - I desperately want this to be the year Arsenal finishes outside the top four and everyone finally realizes - and by "everyone" I mean Arsenal supporters - that Arsene Wenger has run his course. However, with the ongoing sagas surrounding Gareth Bale and Luis Suarez and the fact that Arsenal may still pull off one of these huge money deals they finally seem willing to make, I can't quite see them disintegrating and crashing in a glorious puffy coated, referee blaming, pass for passing's sake blaze of glory, although it would be delicious fun to watch. I'd pop popcorn and invite friends over.

Arsenal actually find themselves in arguably the most stable situation of any of the big name sides and there's still the possibility that a game-changing, big money signing may darken the door at the Emirates. Regardless, I see Arsenal going apeshit for 4th once again. God love 'em.

On to the relegation frontrunners!

It seems absurd to list them 18th through 20th because they're all going to wind up in the same place. But so does your food, and I'm not one to mix my beef tenderloin, kale salad, malbec, and chocolate tartufo in a blender and chug it. Let's be civilized, for crying out loud.

18. Hull - I just don't see it happening. Even though Steve Bruce's side have recently signed poor man's Moussa Dembele, Tom Huddelstone and have added the likes of Danny Graham and Maynor Figueroa, I don't think it's going to be enough to keep the Tigers in the Premier League, regardless of whether or not the league eventually relents and allows them to call themselves "The Tigers". Relegated means relegated even if you pronounce it "Tigers". Steve Bruce to be sacked in a panic firing around about the same time Ian Holloway loses his job. And speaking of Ian Holloway...

19. Crystal Palace - Palace rode Wilfried Zaha all the way to the Premier League and they'll ride his absence all the way to the League Championship. In the meantime, Ian Holloway, ladies and gentlemen! Enjoy him while he lasts.

20. Stoke City - As an American, I feel I'm contractually obligated to like Stoke, but as a fan of the Beautiful Game, they make me want to gouge my eyes out Oedipus Rex style.

Mark Hughes: Like this, but instead of gold, imagine poo.

Speaking of mythology, let's talk about Midas's lesser known brother, Mark Hughes. Everything Midas touched turned to gold and he eventually became so miserable, alone, thirsty, and hungry that he begged Dionysus to take the golden touch away. Everything Mark Hughes touches turns into a steaming mound of excrement and he's eventually fired for turning something that was once at least functional into a steaming mound of excrement.

Some would say Stoke City already are that so maybe the Mark Hughes touch will work in reverse. All I've seen so far is a protracted flirtation with Mame Biram Diouf that ended in rejection. Yes, that Mame Biram Diouf.



Dark horse table climber:

Swansea City - Look out for Michael Laudrup's side this season. The Wales club is quietly enjoying an unparalleled succession of managers with essentially the same soccer philosophy and are becoming eponymous with passing, fluid, attractive soccer. Laudrup has enhanced his League Cup winning side with the signings of Jordi Amat, Alejandro Pozuelo, Jonjo Shelvey, and Wilfried Bony. If he can make it through the remaining transfer tomfoolery with Ashley Williams still in all white, Swansea could be in Europe next season.

Dark horse table plunger:  

Until about twenty four hours ago, I had Fulham in this unenviable position. With the signing of Darren Bent and more signings promised (please, please, please make this true). I can't see the Cottagers slipping into a relegation scrap. This leaves me flummoxed and admittedly without a clear answer. If I had to pick, I'd say Norwich because, you know...canaries, but I could also see Cardiff dipping into the bottom three to make it a perfect three for three yoyo act. Or at least a two and Mark Hughes. Could be a good name for a drink?

Breakout Performers:

Kevin Mirallas - The kid was on fire at the end of last season and showed no signs of slowing down in the friendlies leading up to this season. With Roberto Martinez at the helm at Everton, Mirallas could benefit from the sort slick passing and dynamic movement the Spaniard preaches.

Coutinho -  He was very bright last season but was often overshadowed by Luis Suarez's brilliance and Luis Suarez's insanity. He as the technical ability, pace, and creativity to make headlines on Merseyside if he doesn't get too wrapped up in a competition to make the KOP forget about Suarez.

Daniel Sturridge -  See above.

Jozy Altidore - Anyone who's watched the US play recently knows that the kid is playing like a house on fire. He'll be anxious to prove that his time with Hull was the fluke rather than his time with AZ Alkmaar.

There are certainly more, but if you name everyone it's sort of cheating, isn't it? Also, how many words is this now? If you've made it this far, thank you and go buy yourself a beer for which I will pay you back should our paths ever cross.

For now, good night to all and to all a good night! One more sleep until Premier League Day.

The North London Derby Prediction

Arsene Wenger earlier this week stated that Arsenal make no special preparations to face superlative players. Arsenal suddenly make so much more sense to me.

In Soccernomics, by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski, the argument is made that innovative advantages do not live in perpetuity. In other words, if I show up to our office or worksite or lab or *ahem* soccer league with an innovative and effective way of doing the same old thing, I will enjoy a substantial advantage over my opponents for as long as it takes my opponents to either counter my innovation with an innovation of their own or to simply start doing the same thing that I once did so uniquely, and even potentially improve upon my methods.

The case study they use to illustrate said point? Arsene Wenger.

Kuper and Syzmanski are able to pinpoint the exact moment Wenger was no longer "The Professor" and simply became "Wenger." That exact moment? 2006.

This is an image from the near future...like tomorrow

Look, I appreciate Wenger and his very French very stubborn insistence that his methods are not flawed. I appreciate his ability to find young talent and polish it into professional class. I find the brand of football Arsenal plays to be mostly pleasing to the eye (I can do this because I'm not an Arsenal fan and I'll never want to kill myself when they can't play Any. Other. Way. even when they need a goal in the 93rd minute). I can even endure Wenger's constant diffusion of responsibility for his team's inability to do anything other than qualify for the Champions League and get knocked out of domestic cup competitions. I find his peanut butter mouth accent charming, his ridiculous coat ridiculous,  and I kind of dig the fact that he was boning down with an Algerian female rapper half his age...allegedly.

What I enjoy most though, is his tragic inability to innovate again, the caricature of himself he has become, and the manner in which Arsenal fans have adopted their manager's delusional optimism, an optimism that blames everyone and everything else for their side's failure. I don't mean that as schadenfreude. I don't enjoy Arsenal's failure out of spite, but I do enjoy the morality play the Gunners have become. It's like Aesop's Fables or Animal Farm or Oedipus Rex or This Is Spinal Tap all come to life. Arsenal are a cautionary tale warning against the hubris a novel idea can cultivate.
Gareth Bale is not someone like Ricky Lambert who just happens to be his side's best player. Gareth Bale is in the purplest or purple patches. He's wearing a Barney suit, stomping grapes, and listening to Gogol Bordello's Start Wearing Purple on repeat.

Wenger hasn't planned for him? He's either lying or doing the most Arsene Wenger thing Arsene Wenger has ever done. I'm going with latter.

Prediction: Gareth Bale - 3. Arsenal - 1.    

The Better Late Than Never Predictions

Those of you in Blighty are no doubt slumbering peacefully away on the eve of yet another Premier League Saturday...or you're not and you're out carousing with the boys (or ladies) and more than a few pints in. In any case, you're not reading this right now. Consider it a morning gift and/or hangover remedy left in the still of night by yours truly. I'm like football blogging Santa.

Those of you on this side of the Atlantic, well, what's your excuse? It's Friday night! I know because I'm doing this rather than making any number of much more questionable although undoubtedly more fun decisions all for the benefit of you dear readers. I'm like football blogging Jesus.

Santa and Jesus. I'll take that.

On to the predictions!

Chelsea take on West Brom in a match that will no doubt attract even a neutral's eye after Rafa went Waterboy, snapped, and leveled his shoulder on everyone from the Blues' fans to the Chelsea boardroom. I can't say I blame him or even that he's wrong, but wow. Anyone else get the feeling that Chelsea's season may be one or two losses from a spectacular, flaming train wreck to be played out in the season's remaining press conferences, tabloids, and rumor mills?

Rafa Benitez is not impressed

The best thing Chelsea have going for them this weekend is that Romelu Lukaku is ineligible to play against his parent club. Beyond that, you can bet the atmosphere at Stamford Bridge will be considerably unwelcoming to Rafa and populated by the Boo Bird's predatory raptor cousin.

To Chelsea fans, I'd love to say the leadership and quality in the side will buckle down, play for one another, and kick on, but it would be disingenuous and against type for me to do so. Remember the whole "Santa Jesus" thing. That's why I'm right off the bat using my William J. La Petomane Insane Prediction Of The Week! I call a 1-0 Baggies win with more gnashing of teeth and finger pointing in the post match interviews.

Everton and Reading square off at Goodison Park and both teams are in need of a win but for entirely different reasons. The Toffees began the campaign like a house on fire but have recently struggled to find their previously scintillating form and are coming off a FA Cup win against lowly Oldham that should have been done and dusted a couple of weeks ago.

Clearly, the resemblance is uncanny

Reading find themselves at the foot of the table, but only just. With some help in the other matches, they could pop out of the relegation zone with a win tomorrow, but they'll have to do it without Pavel Pogrebnyak who went Drago in last weekend's loss to Wigan. On paper, this should be a relatively easy Everton win, but there are goals in this Reading side and Everton have been suspiciously generous in the back, especially late on in matches. I think the Toffees storm out to an early lead only to get pegged back by Reading to set up a grandstand finish. 2-1, Everton.

Manchester United are the only side in the perennial frontrunners to yet show any semblance of the yips. They see off inferior sides and find a way to win against the other frontrunners. Whether it's 73 year old Ryan Giggs smacking one in with his ivory headed cane, hirsute Wayne Rooney cannoning in a screamer from the edge of the box, equine Robin Van Persie scoring for fun, or even Rafael blacking out and murdering a 25 yard scud into the top corner, United always seem to find the goals to win.

And speaking of "finding the goals to win," whatever Chris Hughton has done to the Canaries in recent weeks (ostensibly not using them to warn miners of impeding death), has worked wonders. This side has come a long way from the team who were thrashed by Fulham 5-0 to start the season. If Norwich find themselves down a goal with 10 minutes left to play, David de Gea will get ample opportunity against the likes of Grant Holt and Kai Kamara to prove that he's gotten over his callow attempts to claim crosses. I don't think it gets that nervy, but I also think Norwich are good for at least a goal in this contest. 2-1, United.

Southampton entertain QPR on Saturday and it looks for all the world to me like the Harry Redknapp effect has earned its few points and normalcy has returned. "Normalcy" being QPR's complete inability to execute even the basic fundamentals of sound defense while setting new standards for futility in the attacking end of the pitch.

That said, Southampton, while a little more than occasionally playing some fine attacking soccer, are also prone to a little more than occasionally pulling a Jos Hooiveld, even when it's not Jos Hooiveld executing the aforementioned Jos Hooiveld maneuver. I think there are goals in this one. 4-2, Southampton.

Murder Incorporated (aka Stoke City) play host to West Ham and all bets are off given the injuries and suspensions affecting players from both sides. Robert Huth is out for Stoke after trying to rearrange Philippe Senderos's face with his forearm in last weekend's match against Fulham (couldn't have made him uglier) , although given that they seem to have an entire squad of meat fisted center backs at their disposal, I don't think this hurts Stoke too much. West Ham are at a considerably more significant loss as Kevin Nolan is set to miss the match with a broken toe and Mark Noble has hurt his arm.

With West Ham missing arguably their two best midfielders and coming off a heart breaking loss to Gareth Bale, I think Stoke finally get back to winning ways and probably break a few legs along the way. Stoke for the 1-0 win.

Sunderland v Fulham represents a chance for the Cottagers to avenge the thumping they received from the Black Cats earlier in the season at Craven Cottage and also build on last week's victory over Stoke. I think they have every opportunity to do this against an underachieving Sunderland side, but as a Fulham supporter, I am immune to confidence and find optimism generally distasteful.

To me, the lynchpin to a successful Fulham side lies in Dimitar Berbatov's ability/desire/discipline to stay farther up the pitch than he has a tendency to do. In lieu of that, Fulham need to play with two out-and-out strikers to compensate for Berbatov's dalliances into the midfield. Given that this match is away from home, I don't think Martin Jol will start two dedicated forwards. This leaves me praying that Berbatov will draw a lesson from the Fulham "Harlem Shake" video (scroll down) and calmly occupy space in the attacking third while the other ten Fulham players go apeshit around him winning the ball, pressing Sunderland, and finding the Bulgarian in space between the Sunderland center backs. Even if all of that does come to pass, I'm still wary of Adam Johnson, Steven Fletcher, Stephane Sessegnon, and Danny Graham...and Philippe Senderos's one required moment of lunacy. Does a 1-1 draw sound about right to anyone else?

In Saturday's most tantalizing match, newly laden with silverware Swansea play host to Nouveau Chateau (aka Newcastle). This could be a really exciting match for the neutral viewer. Now that I've written that it will most probably end 0-0 and have all the drama and intrigue of your grandparent's sex life. Let's hope not.

Swansea will be well rested and full of confidence after winning an uncontested Capital One Cup and Newcastle are playing some of the most powerful and pleasing football in the league at the moment. I'm honestly at a total loss on this one. I call 3-3 in a classic, borderline William J. La Petomane Insane Prediction.

And in Saturday's final match, Liverpool travel to Wigan in a battle of ex Swansea managers, ex Swansea managers who did an excellent job setting the table for Michael Laudrup. Martinez has been trying to set his Wigan table with plastic forks, chopsticks, paper plates, a towel and a cookie tray for the last few years (and made some delicious meals in spite of these presentational limitations) and Brendan Rodgers has a table cluttered with fine china, doilies, real silver silverware, and an enormous centerpiece, but can't keep his hollandaise from separating.

Wigan throttled Reading last weekend and helped only half of my WJL Insane Prediction come true while Liverpool are coming off a similar demolition of the Swans. I see Liverpool the more likely of the two sides to continue their run of form as I think Rodgers is finally starting to put some delicious dishes in those expensive platters. Liverpool, 3-0.

Have a wonderful Saturday!                

The Uruk Hai, Predator, "B" Words Premier League Predictions

What a week-and-a-half it's been. I spent most of it in a fever dream hacking up 2/3 of a lung and blowing a brownish material the viscosity of honey from my nose, but apparently a lot happened in the football world as well.

Namely, AC Milan took a 2-0 aggregate lead in their first leg Champions League match against Barcelona and caused most Pompey fans to experience a sudden spike in their experience of anti-schadenfreude. Seriosuly, can you imagine supporting a club in the throes of an epic financial implosion that is seeing them nosedive in a flaming clusterfuck of failures down the league structure while two of your old boys lead a famous club to a famous win over a considerably more famous club in the most famous club competition in the world; a competition your club will likely never again even get a sniff at? It's enough to make your heart arrhythmically beat the Chimes of Pompey. Pouring one out for the Southcoasters as I write this.

What I didn't miss was much Premier League action. Praise Jesus. Eventually, I'll get around to figuring out what my record is in Premier League predictions this season, but I can tell you now without even crunching the numbers that it's pretty good. I'm not one to toot my own horn, but *toot, toot*.

So what's on tap for tomorrow?

Well, the early kickoff sees Fulham play host to Stoke City. What is there to say about Stoke that hasn't been said already before? Well, how about this: Stoke City are like an army of Uruk Hai marauding through the Premier League by surviving on the entrails of those poor Men, Elves, and Hobbits they've kicked to death. That and absolute evil. Mostly absolute evil. I mean, what is that freaking towel-sewn-into-the-jersey thing but absolute evil. It's gimmicky and frustrating and amateurish and it makes my blood boil that it's actually effective sometimes. Mercifully, they've not used it much this year, but they still have Ryan Shawcross and I can't stand Ryan Shawcross. Also, I'm a Fulham fan so take everything I've just written with a Wife of Lot sized grain of salt.

Stoke center back Ryan Shawcross

I want to predict a comfortable Fulham win, but as was discussed on the Cottage Talk podcast earlier today, Martin Jol has yet to figure out the most effective combination for Fulham's attack. As was mentioned on the show, on the one hand it's reassuring that Jol realizes this is an issue. On the other hand, ummm, it's almost March. I feel somewhat like I'm beating a dead horse here, but we lack the combination of pace and guile on the wings to afford us the luxury of playing with two number 10s, and maybe even one number 10. Additionally, Fulham offer next to nothing going forward if a striker a la Hugo Rodallega isn't played in an advanced role.

Hopefully, Jol doesn't go with the 4-6-0 he's deployed all too often this season and Fulham are able to take advantage of a suddenly leaky Potters' defense. I'll call a 2-1 Fulham win with one Stoke Uruk Hai seeing red. I don't think they'll be able to resist kicking Berbatov. God knows I couldn't.

Arsenal take on Aston Villa on Saturday as well. The good news for the Gunners is that Aston Villa does not start with the letter "B". Bradford, Blackburn, and Bayern have all recently taken it to The Arsenal and, having just finished reading Soccernomics, I know Arsene Wenger to be a huge fan of statistics. Rest easy, Arsene, there's not a "B" in sight...unless you count Villa being from Birmingham and employing the Belgian Benteke. Fuck! Still, Arsenal can't lose this one, can they? I call Arsenal 3-1 victors.

Grant Holt: Predator lust porn

In another 3:00PM kickoff, Norwich play host to Everton.  It's tough not to read too much into Everton's collapse against Oldham in the FA Cup and I have to admit I'm tempted. Weaker opponent, away fixture, physical team who can throw a big body into the box? I hate to say it, but I see this ending in a 1-1 draw. Jelavic has gone off the boil and it seems just like Everton to travel to a weaker team and only manage a draw. All bets are off, however, if The Predator lands at Carrow Road as he'll immediately hunt down Grant Holt and his massive trophy skull. Let me know ASAP if it's warmer than usual in Norwich tomorrow morning.

Manchester United travel to Queens Park Rangers and are looking to avoid being yet another of the Premier League elite to fall victim to Harry Redknapp and his financially unsustainable menagerie of pensioners. The timing of this fixture benefits Manchester United as there's no way they will be surprised by what QPR can offer. Also, the fact that Manchester United is Manchester United and have thus far proven to be the only Premier League side not prone to the occasional embarrassing hiccup bodes well for the Red Devils. Even though United look to be without the services of Wayne Rooney who has been laid low with a case of the sniffles (I feel your pain, Wayne!), I still think United rolls here. 3-0 Man U.

Reading play host to Wigan and my nonsexual mancrush, Roberto Martinez. In campaigns past, this match would have all the allure of a documentary about llamas on a Sunday afternoon on PBS. For most people it probably still does, but I'm prone to believe that there are goals in this match. What's that sound? You guessed it! It's the William J. Le Petomane Insane Prediction of the Week. I'm calling an edge of the seat, grandstand finish, women swooning, dogs and cats living together, goals bonanza. Why? I have no idea. 3-3. Epic.

In Saturday's final match, West Bromwich Albion take on Sunderland. This is really the tale of two strikers. Can Romelu Lukaku have more of an effect on the day's events than Steven Fletcher? At home, I'm inclined to think that he can. My caveat to this is if Steve Clarke does indeed decide to recall Peter Odemwingie. I can see this going one of two ways, but never the twain shall meet. One: Peter "Don't You Want Me, Baby" Odemwingie is called upon to provide a spark for the Baggies but is booed so mercilessly he sucks the wind out of the West Brom cause and Sunderland steals some points. Two: Peter "Sign Me Maybe" Odemwingie is called upon to provide a spark for the Baggies cause and is booed so mercilessly he finds that extra gear to stick one in shut the up the home supporters. My call? 1-1.

   

Premier League Predictions for Sunday, 2/10/13

If I start this post by saying that I was this close to calling Southampton v Manchester City as my William J. Le Petomane insane prediction of the week, no one will believe me. But I should point out that both of QPR's recent massive results against Chelsea and the aforementioned Citeh were called by yours truly. Lend me any credibility? Didn't think so.

Tomorrow plays host to only two matches. First on the docket is Aston Villa v West Ham United. Anyone who can call Villa's results this season is either a master of the dark arts or is in possession of the most finely tuned Magic 8 Ball this world has ever seen. My call? Reply is hazy, try again later...

...It's "later" and I still have zero idea. West Ham can't score away from home and Aston Villa have only undercut their away form with their decidedly poor showings at home. I like Villa to make a run at staying up and predict a 2-1 Villa win.

Too soon?

In Sunday's other match, Manchester United takes on Everton at Old Trafford. The corresponding fixture last season ended 4-4 after a breathless 90 minutes that eventually helped derail United's bid for the league title. With City slipping up today against Southampton, United have a chance to effectively end their neighbor's bid to keep the title in the blue half of Manchester and essentially make the rest of the drama of the 2012-13 season about Champions League spots and relegation battles. Of all the sides in the league, the Red Devils seem the least susceptible to unexpected hiccups and I think they put the Premier League on ice tomorrow. 2-1, United. But wouldn't a Toffees win be delicious?

Premier League Predictions for Saturday, 2/9/13

Play match. Pack bags. Disperse to all corners of the world. Play match. Pack bags. Return to club. Play match.

That's pretty much the last week in the life of a national team soccer player playing in the Premier League and the results from this weekend's fixture list will undoubtedly illustrate how grueling a lifestyle this is to lead. Heavy legs, knocks, jet lag, and rumbly basements (read: tropically induced intestinal trouble) will conspire to sprinkle throughout the team sheets a number of unusual players in unusual positions. Or they won't and instead will conspire to create some unusual performances from usually stellar players. It all makes for great viewing.

The predictions:

"3-2?! Have you gone Berserk?"

Tottenham v Newcastle - The French Revival is well and truly underway for Monsieur (De)Pardew's Newcastle squad and I don't see that slowing down. Tottenham are well up the table, but aren't exactly setting the world on fire with their attacking performances. Clint Dempsey just played 90 minutes in a Honduran sauna, Gareth Bale led Wales to a win over Austria, and Emmanuel Adebayor is barely back from the African Cup of Nations. Newcastle had their own stars away on national team duty, notably Yohan Cabaye and Moussa
Sissoko, but I feel like the pointy end of Tottenham's spear will be rather duller than the pointy end of Newcastle's...even at White Hart Lane. This leads me to this week's Governor William J. Le Petomane Insane Prediciton of the Week (And right out of the gates too!): Newcastle to win 3-2. AVB's beard at three days' growth.

Chelsea v Wigan - My love affair with Roberto Martinez is long and well documented, but with center back issues and the fact that Roberto Martinez still manages Wigan, I don't see the Latics getting anything here...unless they break Demba Ba's nose for the second week in a row. Chelsea to win 3-0.

Please, Santo Jol, you need me up top!

Norwich v Fulham - In their first meeting this season, Fulham torched the Canaries 5-0. Phil Mison at ESPN wrote a great recipe for canary dinner, but I'm not sure I share his optimism. I've been critical of Dimitar Berbatov and the way he is deployed for the Cottagers, especially against superior sides. Norwich is certainly not that, but in the last two matches, both played at Craven Cottage, Fulham has looked much brighter and more confident going forward. In the West Ham match, I attribute this to Martin Jol playing two strikers. In the Manchester United match, I attribute this to Jol not being able to select Berbatov. I suspect Fulham may travel to Carrow Road and revert to the one striker system, in which case Norwich gets the win 2-1. If, on the other hand, Jol bucks up or if Berbatov doesn't pass his late fitness test, Fulham draws 2-2. Gah! Pick one! As much as it pains me, Canaries win 2-1.

Stoke v Reading - When did the Potters decide to start letting in a shit ton of goals? A month ago Asmir Begovic watched his defenders kick, punch, eye gouge, and generally brutalize everything that came near his goal. The Britannia was a fortress. Now it's sort of a decorative shed with a bronzed rooster on top of it. Against Reading, however, I see Stoke getting back to winning ways. 1-0 Potters.

Sunderland v Arsenal - I grow weary even thinking about predicting Arsenal matches. Also, I grow weary of Arsenal fans dissecting my Arsenal predictions. How's this one, Gooners? Arsenal 2-1.

Swansea v QPR - I'll be a monkey's uncle. Here we are in February and QPR are showing signs of life. Granted, it's life that's come at an extraordinary premium, will probably still see the club go down, and then sink into the throes of financial ruin, but it sure as hell is fun to watch now! In the meantime, Swansea can't buy a goal. I call another draw for 'Arry's expensively assembled pensioners. 1-1.

Southampton v Manchester City - I think City knows Pepe Reina gifted them a lifeline in the Premier League chase and a slip up against Southampton is something they simply cannot afford. With Manchester United playing Everton this weekend, City will be hoping for a win and a United hiccup against a very capable Toffees side. I see at least half of that equation as a stone cold lock. Manchester City 2-0.

Best XI Bottom III

This weekend I (again) spent an inordinate amount of time watching Premier League matches back-to-back-to-back while I should have been doing other, more constructive things like walking the dog, cleaning my apartment, or...bathing. This fact was no lost on my delightful girlfriend and I'm currently snuggling on the couch with her watching The Bachelor as penance. I'm screwed if she looks over my shoulder to see what I'm typing. Whatever. It was worth it. I enjoyed it and I can quit any time. You're not the boss of me.

Some time between watching Arsene Wenger actually make use of that ridiculous coat of his and surprising myself by cheering enthusiastically for a draw in the Spurs v Man United match, I had a thought [insert "one thought" jokes here]. Could you, drafting only players currently on teams in the relegation zone of the Premier League, put together a league challenging side?

Just so we're all on the same page here, we're talking QPR, Wigan, and Reading. QPR are, dare I say, reborn under Harry Redknapp and are currently threatening to shed their mantle as Most Spectacular Train Wreck Of The Season. But their January transfer window activity thus far has been limited to signing too old, too expensive hired guns to replace a bunch of other too old, too expensive hired guns. I will literally eat my hat if QPR escape relegation.

My hat.

Wigan have been competently - and I mean that with all sincerity- led by Roberto Martinez right back into a relegation scrap and should be thankful to even be there. Seriously, how does this guy do it? It seems like every year Wigan just escape relegation and celebrate by selling off their best players, replacing them with no one in particular, and winding up the whole thing again just to see how close they can cut it. Everyone goes on and on about Harry Redknapp, but what Martinez does every single year with three nuns, a mime, four UPS drivers, a high school place kicker, two mannequins, and six of those shooting dummies they use at training sessions to make the wall is astounding. I predict they do it again this year.

Hippest duckface ever.

That leaves us with Reading, the quintessential yo-yo side. They could barely stay up or barely go down and I wouldn't be surprised either way. The best thing they have going for them is that there are other teams just as bad, if not worse, that could sneak into one of those bottom three spots. The worst thing they have going for them is that they look an awful lot like QPR in those jerseys. C'mon, Reading. Dress like the guy who has the job you want.  

So, do we have a contender? Well, first things first, we need a manager. Brian McDermott looks like a bond villain to me and I've never been terribly impressed by his tactics. Harry Redknapp seems the obvious choice, but I submit that he's never gone to a club that wasn't woefully underachieving and then done one before he could ride the crest back down to more realistic results. That leaves me with Roberto Martinez and I feel pretty good about that choice (see above).

In goal I've got to go with Julio Cesar, mostly because I just can't square the fact that this guy has won almost everything in the game with the fact that he's about to get relegated as a member of one of the most underachieving Premier League sides ever. He's starting to come good after some very un-Julio Cesar-like performances and her certainly looks the part in his Brazilian ninja kit. Also, my other realistic choices were Ali Al-Habsi and Rob Green. Al-Habsi isn't an awful choice, but he's got to be backup to Cesar. Green is like a poor man's goalkeeping version of Fernando Torres. In a little over two years the guy has gone from England's number one to a warm seat on the bench of the worst team in the league. If Clint Dempsey ever winds up poisoned, I'm going to want to hear Green's alibi.

He'll be damned if Chamakh is going to score on him. I like that in a goalkeeper.

My back four is Maynor Figueroa, Nicky Shorey, Ryan Nelsen, and Ivan Ramis. Basically, this is a crap shoot. None of the bottom three teams are particularly adept at scoring goals, but they're really freaking good at letting them in. Whoever you stick back there is going to be somewhere way down the ladder from Gary Cahill, Rio Ferdinand, and Michael Dawson. Gary Caldwell, Armand Traore, Stephane M'Bia, and Fabio - Has he not been playing quite well of late? - all probably could have found their way into this Best XI Bottom III back four, but I went with my gut. Figueroa is an athlete who can bomb forward when needed. Nelsen is an old school center back general and a natural leader. Ramis is a big oaf who can kick you. Shorey can occasionally serve a ball. Seems like balance to me. 

In midfield we've got Shaun Maloney, Shaun Wright-Phillips, Junior Hoilett, Adel Taarabt, and Samba Diakite. A few things: 1- I never said these players had to be currently fit. This is my fantasy/nightmare side and I can select whoever I want as long as they're on the roster of a bottom three side. 2 - How in the hell is QPR the worst team in the Premier League with the players they have on that roster?! 3 - Samba Diakite is a butcher and sometimes you need that. 4 - Shortest midfield ever? 5 - I don't want to put Taarabt on this team at all, but he's the closest thing to a gamechanger on any of the bottom three rosters. Seriously, look at who is on these rosters. I'll wait. 

This brings us to my one forward selection. On hype it has to be Loic Remy. On Looks it has to be Pavel Pogrebnyak. On hair it's Arouna Kone. You won't be surprised to learn that no forward on any of the bottom three sides has scored more than eight goals. Again, there's a reason they're in the bottom three. You might be surprised to learn, however, that that eight goal scorer is Reading's Adam Le Fondre. Go on, Adam! Be a hero!

So, could my Best XI Bottom III side challenge for a league title? In a word: no. In five words: Not a chance in hell. But with Adel Taarbat pulling the strings behind a front running Adam Le Fondre, Hoilett and Wright-Phillips providing width on the wings and sometimes collapsing in to allow Figueroa and Shorey to overlap, Diakite kicking people, Maloney being one too many attacking players on the field, Nelsen marshaling the defense with Ramis mouth breathing next to him, Cesar getting a steady workout in the goal, and Martinez looking dapper and gesticulating madly on the touchline, this would be one fun team to watch!

Probably wouldn't be dead bottom either......or have a wage bill as large as QPR's. But we would play at Loftus Road. Nothing like watching a train wreck up close! 

Premier League Predictions or I Mailed This One In, Kisses

Is it Week 7 already? Indeed it is. Time to take stock.

Excluding my insane predictions from Week 4, I'm something like 15-5 in predicting the proper result in the last two weeks and, when I've been bold enough to predict a scorer, I'm 9 for 9. I don't want to toot my own horn, but...

Toot. Toot.

Here's what will happen this week:

Manchester City v Sunderland - City have an issue keeping the ball out of the back of the net. How this is possible with the obscene amounts of cash Sheik Mansoor has shoveled into the pockets of Man City players is beyond me. Without Joe Hart's continuing heroics in the City goal, the problem could be much, much worse than it already is. Sunderland are actually a decent footballing side and haven't been beaten yet this season. Seriously. Sunderland haven't been beaten yet. In addition, Steven Fletcher appears to be worth every one of the GBP 14 million Martin O'Neill spent on him this summer, and can't stop scoring at the moment. Something has to give, right?

Predictions: Mancini sticks with Prada Infusion and continues to be the best smelling man on the touchline. City do get scored on, probably by Fletcher, but wind up winning in somewhat comfortable fashion at home. 3-1.

Chelsea v Norwich City - Could someone please put a sock in both John Terry and Ashley Cole? And by "someone" I mean Roberto Di Matteo. Just when all of the drama seemed to be done and dusted, Ashley Cole took to Twitter this morning to call the FA a "bunch of twats." He then forwent any sort of explanation and just said "sorry." You say sorry when you fart in an elevator. You do not say sorry when you're already a significantly disliked douchebag and you do something inane and immature like take to twitter to draw even more unwanted attention to your already hyper-analyzed club. The big winner here is Leighton Baines. For me, he's a much better option at left back in the England set up but he's been somewhat frozen out by Ashley Cole. If he doesn't get a legitimate shot at replacing the second most hated man in the league after this there's no hope for England.

Predictions: Torres gets a brace. Terry and Cole are booed mercilessly. Norwich continue to stake their claim as relegation frontrunners. Chelsea, 3-0.

Swansea City v Reading - The Swans must be ecstatic that they have a chance to get back on track against a pretty underwhelming Reading side after they've gone off the boil in recent weeks. Reading did get an impressive draw last week against Newcastle (I called that), but I think they comeback down to earth here.

Predictions: Michu reminds us all that he's still in the league with a great performance. Pogrebnyak gets a consolation goal. Swans, 2-1.

WBA v QPR - In the battle of acronym clubs, WBA pushes Mark Hughes even further onto the hot seat. I think the Baggies roll here and heap the misery on Hughes' expensively assembled pensioners.

Predictions: Minimum six shots of Hughes looking stoic and adrift on the touchline. Adel Taarabt comes on in the 75th minute to go all street ball in the middle of the park to little effect. West Brom, 2-0.

Wigan v Everton - Poor Wigan. I say that, but this is a trap match for Everton. The Toffees have played so well this season but are always prone to a slip up against a team they have no business losing to. Unfortunately for my man crush, Roberto Martinez, I don't see this as that match.

Predictions: Mirallas gets in the goals and that combination of Pienaar and Baines down the left flank proves way too much to handle. Everton, 4-0.

West Ham v Arsenal - This is a great chance for Olivier Giroud to finally break his duck for Arsenal. So far this season, he's managed to just look really, really, ridiculously good looking without producing much between the touchlines. Can he come on with about 20 left and get in the goals?

Predictions: Gervinho continues his impressive streak. West Ham are good for one red card. Giroud to come on and get a goal. Finally. Arsenal, 3-1.

Southampton v Fulham - Berba is still out due to garlic exposure. Petric picked up a knock. Kieron Richardson returns to fuck everything up in the Fulham midfield. The match is at St. Mary's. What's all of this add up to? Upset.

Predictions: Rickie Lambert gets in the goals and Fulham offer little going forward. Southampton, 2-0.

Liverpool v Stoke City - Could Liverpool possibly play another great match and get nothing from it? If this was being played at Stoke, I'd say, "Yes. Absolutely." I tend to think though that last week's destruction of Norwich will be enough of a confidence boost to see the Reds through on Sunday. My one caveat to this is that Charlie Adam will come out like a man possessed in an effort to extend a snarling middle finger to the club and the fans who deemed him surplus to requirements.

Predictions: Adam scores. Stoke do what Stoke do and make life exceedingly difficult for Liverpool, but their physical play results in Luis Suarez finally getting a call in the box. Draw, 2-2.

Tottenham v Aston Villa - Adebayor is back for Spurs and AVB has a lot to build on following the win at United last week. I hate to say it because I'm still no AVB fan, but Spurs really do look like they're starting to come together somewhat. A match at home against a nothing special Villa side is definitely an opportunity to consolidate Spurs' recent good form.

Predictions: AVB's beard at one day's growth. Spurs cruise. 2-0.

Newcastle United v Manchester United - Demba Ba is still a house on fire. United are a house without a foundation, although they offer enough going forward that they should get in the goals.

Predictions: 3-3 barn burner.

The Insanity Is Back! Wenger as Colonel Kurtz! Rodgers Is Fidel! QPR And West Ham As Bedroom Furniture! Premier League Predictions

Last week I reined in my insane Premier League predictions and went with a more rational, measured approach, and I did quite well if I do say so myself. Unfortunately, the population of professional and amateur hacks out there making predictions is pretty much enormous and unless I got my hands on Biff Tannen's future sports almanac and called every match score, scorer, card, and substitution the interwebs would largely ignore me. And even if they didn't, I'd probably only garner a digital raised eyebrow from Eric Wynalda's Twitter account (He hands those out pretty freely).

So I say, "Bring back the insanity!"

I've got a goblet of absinthe, a divining stick, and a Magic 8 Ball with me right now and I'm here to tell you exactly what will happen in the Premier League this weekend. Call your bookie. Manage your fantasy team. Katy bar the door.

Arsenal v Chelsea - Lots of ins. Lots of outs. New shit has come to light, man. Arsenal are coming off an encouraging draw against Man City (which I called...just saying), but they're still stuck with Vito "He Sleeps With The Fishes" Mannone in goal. Chelsea sit top of the table and drubbed the bejesus out of Wolves midweek in the Capital One Cup, but then there's all of that extra hullabaloo with John Terry The Courageous Racist. I'm utterly unconvinced by Chelsea so far this season and it seems like such an Arsenal thing to get rid of your best player, not replace him, not address any pressing team needs, lose your starting goalkeeper, and then suddenly wind up in contention for the league title. At this point in his career, I see Arsene Wenger as a sort of football

Giroud, Giroud. This is my nightmare. 

Colonel Kurtz and like maybe chopping off all of those heads and talking about snails on straight razors will eventually luck him back into a Premier League title. The horror...the horror.

Predictions: Gervinho's headband falls off and we finally all learn that his hair was actually a black mop head attached with a rubber band. John Terry and the word "courageous" are used in the same sentence by the broadcasters at least four times. Ashley Cole is not the most booed man on the pitch. Torres is in fact not back. Arsenal win, 2-1.

Fulham v Manchester City - Dimitar Berbatov is out for this match after picking up an injury in training, although I suspect the Fulham nutritionist accidentally added some garlic to Berba's post training meal and part of his face turned to ash and fell off. He's recovering in his coffin at the moment and will awake in two weeks time to again rule the night and bathe in the blood of young virgins. For now, Fulham seem well and truly fucked playing against the defending league champions...or do they? City can't keep the ball out of the net and Craven Cottage is a notoriously difficult place to take points. A loss for the Sky Blues on the banks of the Thames would be one step closer to the wheels falling off for City and Mancini actually starting a slapping fight on the sideline with Martin Jol and/or the fourth official. Sadly, I just don't see it happening, although I suspect City will experience more difficulty than they probably should. 

Predictions: Petric returns and gets on the score sheet. Mancini wears Prada Infusion and smells delicious. Balotelli and/or Tevez come on as subs, get a goal, and do something Balotelli and/or Tevez to celebrate...maybe point at an imaginary watch or something. City win, 3-1.

I smoke Canaries for desayuno!

Norwich v Liverpool - Liverpool have to win this, don't they? Borini is out and no one knows who is going to play at left back with both Enrique and Kelly crocked. Shelvey is suspended. The Rodgers Revolution is looking pretty threadbare. In historical context, if The Rodgers Revolution was the Cuban Revolution, this would be the moment where the Granma has wrecked in a Mangrove swamp, Batista's men have killed or captured many of the revolutionaries, and Che and Fidel have high tailed it to the Sierra Maestra to regroup and figure out what to do next. Rodgers' Reds (see what I did there?) are in an equally desperate situation and a dismantling of Norwich, whose
Hughton Revolution is more of a Hughton Sit In, would win them the support of the locals and establish a guerrilla vanguard which could; as a mobile, agile, attacking unit; harass and harry the ruling might of the Big Clubs and bring about a regime change. Revolucion!!!!!!!!!

 Too much?

Predictions: Suarez pauses at least once during the match to contemplate getting his overbite fixed. Sterling has a monster of a match and rakes in fantasy points for his delirious owners. Norwich wonders why Liverpool finally woke up against them. Liverpool, 2-0.

Stoke v Swansea - I'm not entirely sure what to say about this one. A quick, possession oriented, attacking team takes on a physical, foul oriented, scrappy team. Swans are coming off some disappointing results and got absolutely housed by Everton last weekend. Stoke are coming off negative, but encouraging results against two of the best teams in the league and they're at home. I think the Potters kick Swansea up and down the field in this one.

Predictions: Crouch gets on the score sheet. Little Mickey Owen comes on, gets an assist, and hurts himself in the celebration. One red card in this match. Geoff Cameron plays at least one new position for the Potters. I think goalkeeper, forward, and winger are all that's left. Stoke win, 2-1.

Sunderland v Wigan - Roberto Martinez, the love of my life (Call me, Bobby!), is without Antolin Alcaraz and Franco Di Santo for this trip to the Stadium of Light. I read somewhere that Mauro Boselli is in contention to start after scoring two against West Ham in cup competition and that Roberto announced all Wigan starting berths were open for competition. I was encouraged by this and phoned the Wigan front office to see if I could come over on trial, but I haven't heard anything back yet. Seriously though, it's only a matter of time. I'm off to the gym later on just in case. In Sunderland news, is it just me, or are they, you know, pretty freakin' good? Lee Cattermole is serving a suspension - of course he is - and there are a couple of guys with little, niggling injuries, but I don't expect that to be any big deal if the most threatening attacking player in a blue jersey is Mauro Boselli.

Predictions: Martin O'Neill leaves his rugby jersey at home and has to wear a track top. This causes him serious discomfort throughout the match and his increased irritability leads to a sending off. Steven Fletcher bags a hat trick and continues to stake his claim that he is, in fact, worth 14 million pounds. Roberto Martinez further enhances his reputation as the nicest guy in the Premier League by bringing the referees tea at halftime. Sunderland win, 4-1.

Reading v Newcastle - Demba Ba is still a house on fire. Reading are a meatloaf you left in the freezer last October that you've just now uncovered. Also, Yohan Cabeye may miss out due to a mouth infection. A Mouth infection?! Yohan, you dirty dog!

Predictions: Alan Pardew lets his assistants manage the whole match. When they ask him what to do, he just chuckles and says, "Eight year contract, bitches!" Pavel Pogrebnyak wins a penalty, steps up to take it, points at Harper, and then says, "I will crush you." He misses, but all of his teammates call him Drago anyhow. Demba Ba brace, but the match still ends in a draw. 2-2.

Everton v Southampton - Is there any reason to expect Everton won't continue playing beautiful football against one of the weakest sides in the league at Goodison Park? Personally, I don't think so. Rickie Lambert is only one man.

Predictions: Everton roll. Not much insane to say here...other than the score line! 6-1. Gotta pour one out for Lambert.

Manchester United v Tottenham - This is where AVB proves once and for all that he is absolutely good enough for sixth. I want this to be a classic match between two of the class teams in the league, but I think this will be the match in which Spurs fans finally utter what they've been thinking all along: "What the fuck is AVB doing?" I had a coach in college who would give rambling, non-sensical team talks. Typically, you want to share three or four points with your players at halftime so as not to confuse them. He would usually average between twelve and fifteen and start half of them with, "As my good friend Sir Alex Ferguson would say..." As far as we could tell, he had a buddy send him a book he got signed by Sir, but that's about it. Once we got on the pitch, one of the captains would usually say something like, "Forget all that shit and do this instead." We won a lot of matches that way and I don't think the coach ever even noticed, such was his ineptitude. Mercifully, he got fired when I was a junior because he told some female student she had wonderful tits. I guess what I'm trying to say here is, here's to hoping AVB tells some Spurs exec she has wonderful tits. 

Predictions: Spurs look tentative and confused. United takes the space they're given and never look like losing at Old Trafford. Friedel lets in a few, but they're not really his fault. Minimum four shots of Lloris looking upset and French on the bench. AVB's beard at one day's growth. Dempsey to get a goal after the game is decided. United win, 3-1.

Aston Villa v West Brom - This has to be a draw, doesn't it? Are there two teams in the league more difficult to wrap your mind around than Villa and West Brom? You thik they should lose, they win. You think they should win, they get ridden hard and hung up wet. I'm at a loss and can't muster much excitement for this match...which is why it'll be a back and forth barn burner.

Predictions: This match will have everything. Cards. Drama. Goals. Women weeping. Grandstand finish. Who'd have thunk, right? Insanity. Draw, 3-3.

QPR v West Ham - This is the only match less tantalizing than Aston Villa v West Brom. It's like Let's Make A Deal and behind door number one was a washer/dryer set and you decided to go for door number two (Was that Let's Make A Deal?) hoping for a bitchin' Camaro and instead you got a couple of dressers. QPR and West Ham are a couple of dressers. And I'm not talking Ethan Allen dressers but Value City dressers. QPR and West Ham are Value City dressers. Having said that, if I'm in Value City and I have to buy a Value City dresser, I'm buying West Ham. QPR are without most of their defenders and blue and white stripes look tacky in the bedroom.

This is how they'll line up. 

Predictions: West Ham, 2-0. Insanity.

Rational Predictions For This Weekend's Premier League Fixtures or Lesson Learned

Last week I said some insane shit. That Dimitar Berbatov may be a vampire - or Daywalker, more accurately - was not one of them. Still, I was pretty close to making some dead on calls and I stand by much of the not-so-insane analysis from many of the other matches. What I won't do again is pick Wigan at Old Trafford no matter how much I love Roberto Martinez. Call me, Roberto!

I'm too sexy for Wigan

On to this week's fixtures!

Southampton v Aston Villa - Christian Benteke and Rickie Lambert in a striker's dual. Not that either will get bags of goals, but whoever is sharper on the day will win this one for his club. Southampton 2-1. 

Chelsea v Stoke - Stoke gave City a run for their bags and bags and bags of money last weekend so they shouldn't sneak up on Chelsea this weekend. On the other hand, Chelsea was in midweek Champion's League action and you never quite know how that's going to affect a team. Plus, they drew with QPR last weekend and that's a little bit like not scoring with a hooker. I'm trying not to over think this one but I want to. Let's go 2-0 Chelsea at The Bridge.

Wigan v Fulham - This is a trap game for Fulham. Everyone loves Dimitar and show zero inclination to chase him to his castle with torches and pitchforks and drive a wooden stake through his undead heart. Wigan just got thrashed by a less-than-classic United side. This is where Wigan pulls a Wigan and runs out 3-1 winners at home...Wait, what's happening to me?! I can't help it! [Head spins around and spews vomit] Aghhhhhhh!!!! I must have ONE insane prediction!! Fulham shake their road woes and trounce Wigan 5-1. Berbatov gets a hat trick. Martin Jol eats a crepe on the sideline. Roberto Martinez calls Owen Hargreaves after the match. 

Phew! I'm back. Sorry about that...

West Brom v Reading - All I can say about this match is, "Meh." 0-0

West Ham v Sunderland - I hate to say it, but so far Steven Fletcher looks to be worth 14 million pounds. Who'd have thunk? If he has shaken off the knock he took in last week's match against Liverpool I look for Sunderland to outclass West Ham in a scrappy affair. 1-0 Sunderland. 

Liverpool v Manchester United - Everyone is expecting Suarez and Evra Handshakegate II. If you watched last week's United match, you won't be surprised if Evra doesn't even get the chance to retaliate for Suarez's handshake snub. Buttner looked class. As for the Hillsborough/Munich Air Disaster chants, there will probably be a minority of pint pickled fans who do or say something stupid; we'll here about it on Monday; and that will be the talking point. During the match, no one, especially those watching on TV, will have any idea anyone has done anything other than support his club.

If I'm a betting man, and I'm not, I don't think there's any way Liverpool go down like a bunch of Young Boys against United at Anfield in such an emotionally charged match. A win here could save Brendan Rodgers' early season blushes. I call 'Pool 2-1. 

Newcastle v Norwich City - Demba Ba is a house on fire. Norwich City is a leftover turkey breast. Newcastle 3-0. 

Tottenham v QPR - I'm still unconvinced by Spurs and I remain even more so now that Lloris, Friedel, and Barthez are in a three way lovers' quarrel. Did Lloris not think to ask, "Hey, you've got three keepers on the roster already. Where, exactly, do I fit in," before he signed on the dotted line? Is he so French that he just assumed he'd slide right in to the first team? I want to start a "USA" chant right now and slow clap Brad Friedel while I watch reruns of the 2002 World Cup and listen to Lynryd Skynryd. 

I think this match winds up much like Tottenham's last match, a misleading score line in an uninspired victory against weaker opponents. Deuce Face to make an appearance (and score a goal). AVB with two days' fashion stubble. Gareth Bale is teased by his teammates to come up with something other than that ridiculous heart symbol should he score a goal. 2-0 Spurs. 

Manchester City v Arsenal - Tasty match, this. Is Arsenal as good as their record? Can City keep a clean sheet? How will the Real Madrid loss have affected the Sky Blues? I can't see this being a low scoring affair...which is probably why it will be. 1-1, honors even.

Premier League: Insane Predictions For This Weekend's Fixtures! Berbatov A Vampire! Terry And Ferdinand Both Racist! Wigan Win!

Phew! The international break is over and the Premier League fires up its engines again for another three days of the most exciting football on the planet. One caveat: Don't expect the metaphorical engine I was just writing about to sound like a Bugatti Veyron purring down the autobahn or carving through corners in the Swiss Alps. Rather, the two week international "break" can be counted on to have thrown some sugar in the tanks of even the deepest teams and the knocks, trans ocean flights, difficult qualifiers/friendlies, and time away from club training sessions will most definitely have more than one team firing up a two stroke lawn mower engine that's been sitting in a shed in the back.

What does all of that mean? Upset alert(s).

Norwich City v West Ham United -  In a weird way, this may be the best advertisement for how fun the Premier League is to watch. Sort of like gonorrhea being a great advertisement for condoms. Premier League fans are actually salivating for the kickoff of this match because it means that the league is finally back in action. The Canaries are coming off a moral victory (draw) against Andre "Good Enough For 6th" Villas-Boas' Tottenham side and West Ham are coming off of a comprehensive walloping of Fulham. As far as momentum goes, it's kind of a push save for the fact that The Hammers are without Andy Carroll who picked up a hamstring injury in what was an otherwise stellar debut. Carlton Cole will step in for Carroll and Yossi Benayoun will likely make his West Ham debut...for the second time...and the last time...again. I'm calling a 2-0 Hammers victory.

Fulham v WBA - As a Cottagers' fan, I want to say Fulham will get back on track and beat West Brom at home. I want to say Dimitar Berbatov will bag a classy hat trick. I want to say we're over Moussa Dembele and Clint Dempsey, we'll find other loves, they never really appreciated us anyway, and the chick from 3B understands us better. Alas, I can't quite see it happening. Bryan Ruiz is questionable for this match and if there's one thing (and there are a lot more things than one) Fulham was lacking in the match against West Ham, it's a creative link between midfield and the forwards. Compounding this problem is the fact that Mohamadou Diarra is out with a knee injury so we don't even have the two central players from the last match fit and available. Compounding both of these problems, at least in my mind, is that apparently Dimitar Berbatov has been asking Martin Jol if Fulham supporters will like him...

Does anyone else see Dimitar as an overly sensitive and deeply misunderstood, yet benevolent vampire? Think less Brad Pitt from Interview With a Vampire and more Dracula from the Dracula rock opera in Forgetting Sarah Marshall. Things will get better, Dimi. Just score some fucking goals.

West Brom is coming off of a 2-0 victory against Everton and really only have Steven Reid on the crocked list. I say 2-2 in a wild one.

Arsenal v Southampton - Southampton have gone punch for punch with the big boys so far and Arsenal, although they haven't yet allowed a goal, have yet to convince me. If there's one thing the Gunners' back line consistently has issues with it's big, powerful strikers who are good in the air. If there's one thing Southampton has, it's a big, powerful striker named Rickie Lambert who is good in the air. I think Southampton continues the streak of playing exciting football but coming up just short. Also,  Olivier Giroud breaks his duck. 3-1 Arsenal.

Aston Villa v Swansea City - Both sides look like they'll be significantly different than they were two weeks ago. The Villains will likely call in Christian Benteke, Jordan Bowery, and Ashley Westwood and Swansea is going to have to piece together a back line due to injuries and suspensions. Having said that, what Swansea does well is attack and no one is ever going to accuse Villa of setting the world on fire going forward. 2-1 Swans.

Manchester United v Wigan Athletic - Here's the first of my upset alert matches. I know it's insane, but insanity is fun. Wigan always seems to do crazy shit like, oh say, beat Manchester United at Old Trafford and then lose 5-0 to a team like QPR. United have looked less than convincing in all of their matches so far and unless Danny Welbeck is the perfect foil for RVP (and he may well be), United had better be careful and/or hope that Phil Dowd finds a way to escape the shackles of his fourth official role and start handing out PKs to the Red Devils. Shinji Kagawa and Robin van Persie both picked up knocks while on international duty and I could see Sir starting one or both of them on the bench. I mean, it's Wigan at home, right? 2-1 Wigan. Go on, Wigan! Shock the world!

Queens Park Rangers v Chelsea - Shit just got real. On any other day, Chelsea walks out of...er I guess stays in... West London with a comfortable win. But this isn't any other day. I propose John Terry and Anton Ferdinand don those ridiculous sumo suits - the kind you find at carnivals - and use the center circle as a sumo mat during the warm up. This would serve to get them both back on the same page and bury the hatchet while at the same time offending Shinji Kagawa. The paradox of Anton Ferdinand becoming a racist while John Terry would momentarily not be a racist but then immediately a racist again would keep the British press busy for years, launch another FA investigation, and insure that at least two more handshakegates would give us all something to look forward to. That would put John Terry as the undisputed career leader of awkward handshakes with awkward handshakes had/not had between Wayne Bridge, Rio Ferdinand, Anton Ferdinand, and (hopefully) Shinji Kagawa. #ChelseaLegend.

In actuality, the handshake thing will more than likely come and go pretty quick and then Chelsea can get down to the business of trouncing QPR. 3-0 Chelsea.

Stoke City v Manchester City - And thusly we arrive at upset watch number two! Granted, this one isn't quite as insane as Wigan over Manchester United. Stoke are at the Britannia Stadium which is hard enough to play in when you haven't got the likes of Geoff Cameron, Maurice Edu, Charlie Adam, Ryan Shawcross, Robert Huth, and the ball boys kicking you up and down your legs. And Manchester City certainly will. If Balotelli plays, he's a shoe in for a card, probably one of a reddish hue.








Side note: Does Geoff Cameron not look exactly like Michael Richards' character from Problem Child?





Manchester City haven't been exactly air tight at the back and with so many players away on international duty, I'm not sure one could reasonably expect them to have worked this little problem out. What are the chances Little Mickey Owen comes on, scores the game winner, and then somehow hurts himself in the celebration? That's at least two out of three long shots, but like I said, it's the first fixture after an international break. If not now, when? 3-2 Stoke.

Sunderland v Liverpool - Liverpool will come good eventually. This weekend is not "eventually". 2-1 Sunderland. Also, in case you're thinking, "Another upset?!" Stop thinking that. This isn't an upset anymore.

Reading v Tottenham - Regular readers of the blog will know that I am no big Andre Villas-Boas fan. In short, he's all hat and no cattle. AVB will likely roll out some version of what is essentially a ridiculous 2-5-3 formation, and he'll get away with it, at least against Reading he will. Moussa Dembele has plugged a Moussa Dembele shaped hole and I think Tottenham may start running a little more like that Veyron we were talking about earlier. Still, I think there may be some uncomfortable moments for Spurs in this one. Deuce Face to make an appearance. AVB's scruff at a respectable three days' growth. 2-1 Spurs.

Everton v Newcastle - This is a tricky one. Everton are coming off a 2-0 loss to West Brom and are missing Darron Gibson. I swear I have a straight face when I'm writing that's a significant absence for them. On the other hand, Newcastle are without Tim Krul and Fabricio Coloccini may be unavailable as well. Newcastle haven't yet found the rhythm they enjoyed last season and, save for the unexpected set back against West Brom, Everton have picked up right where they left off. It's a bit of a tough call, but I have to go with Everton at home. Is there a better Premier League atmosphere than Goodison on a Monday Night? That was a rhetorical question, but I'll answer with an unrhetorical, "No!" Even if Coloccini makes it back into the side by Monday night, and I hope he does for selfish reasons, "selfish reasons" being the childlike giggle that any contested ball in the air between Fellaini and Coloccini will likely elicit from me, I still think Everton run out winners here. Seriously, can you imagine it? They'd stick together like velcro and the ball would disappear like a baseball in the ivy at Wrigley. No? Just me? 1-0 Toffees.  

Enjoy the matches and pour a pint out for me! COYW!

Transfer Window Winners and Losers

The dust has settled on the latest transfer window and now that we've got a week of post window fixtures to digest and an international break in which to do it, we can all get down to the serious business of asking ourselves what, exactly the fuck, just happened.

I don't watch a lot of TV, but I imagine the transfer window is like the best reality show ever spread out across a month of intrigue and backbiting. Long time relationships fracture and split; floozies make eyes at taken men from across the bar; alliances are broken while accusations fly; and when we hit the season finale, some teams are caught out and get voted off the island while others get a rose and an all expense paid trip to Hawaii with a dreamy bachelor. The rest survive for another episode. It's trashy and voyeuristic and I love it. 

Winners:

1. Manchester United - I know Robin van Persie is prone to injury, going gray, and decidedly equine in his facial features, but he's showing no sign of coming down from the insane season he had last year and with Fat Wayne Rooney split open like an overcooked sausage, United is his team to run. All those questions about how RVP and FWR (Fat Wayne Rooney in case you missed it earlier) are going to play together have been rendered moot by Van Persie's goals and Rooney's disgustingly gashed disgusting thigh. Bold prediction: If RVP stays healthy, he may score more than he did last year. 

Shinji Kagawa also looks a really good bit of business and has been impressive in his first few matches. He strikes me a bit as a Japanese Luka Modric and if United can get their defensive midfield berth sorted out, he could have a very successful season running behind the front two...or just RVP. 

In the category of intangible wins and losses, RVP seemingly chose United over Manchester City. Only in the world of modern football could this be considered a win for the underdog, but given that Sheik Mansoor likely wipes his ass with gold leaf, RVP's choice is definitely a middle finger to The Man. 

2. Michael Owen - As with Owen Hargreaves last year, Michael Owen has landed on another Premier League payroll. Well played, Michael. Well played. He's pulled a Michael Owen Hargreaves. Mostly this consists of a dance routine to ABBA's "Take a Chance on Me" to prove he's not injured.

3. Tottenham - I still think Andre Villas-Boas will find a way to screw this up, most likely by pissing off broad swaths of his own players, but Tottenham very quietly made some stellar moves in the transfer market. They offloaded old, dead or dying weight; loaned out young promising players who will get oodles of first team action with their new teams; and signed exciting, established players who are arguably in the prime of their careers. 

Offloaded: Niko Kranjcar, Vedran Corluka, Ryan Nelsen, Louis Saha, Sebastien Bassong, David Bentley (It's only a loan, but seriously?!), and Giovani dos Santos

Cashed in on: Luka Modric, Steven Pienaar, and Rafael van der Vaart 

Loaned out: Danny Rose, Harry Kane, and John Bostock

Signed: Gylfi Sigurdsson, Jan Vertonghen, Emmanuel Adebayor, Moussa Dembele, Clint Dempsey, and Hugo Lloris

Tell me how any of this is bad business? Except, obviously, the fact that Bentley was only sent out on loan. For my money, Spurs suddenly look scary good and if/when AVB, aka Euro Inspector Gadget, screws this up he may never manage at the top of the game again. 

4. Clint Dempsey - I don't know how the kid keeps pulling this stuff off. I'm guessing he has Tony Robbins on speed dial and is practicing some crazy Scientology positive self-talk routine. To pick up where my previous post about Clint Dempsey left off, Liverpool is in the bar slutting it up. Dempsey is in Dutch with Fulham. Sunderland looks like she's going to be the hottest option left at closing time. Dempsey doesn't bite even after Sunderland's fat friend Aston Villa makes a pass at him. By this point, Liverpool has left the bar and is dry humping Daniel Sturridge's leg outside in the parking lot. Sunderland and Aston Villa have gone home with men more in their league. Fulham is at home throwing Dempsey's clothes out on the lawn. The bartender has flipped on the lights and announced last call. Deuce takes one last pull on his beer, closes his tab, and then turns to walk out the door. That's when Tottenham comes barging into the bar looking like Kate Upton doing the Cat Daddy, points at Dempsey, and says, "You're coming home with me." Seriously, how does he pull this shit off?

5. West Ham - Everyone is going to point to the fact that their marquee signing, Andy Carroll -who would have thought those words would ever be written in that order again? - picked up a nasty hamstring injury and is out for at least six weeks. Fair play, but did you see how well he played in the first seventy odd minutes against Fulham? West Ham and Sam Allardyce suit his skill set perfectly and I suspect having Kevin Nolan, his best mate/babysitter, around will do wonders for his focus and peace of mind. The thing I'd be worried about, were I a West Ham fan, is what happens when, not if, Liverpool recall Carroll and his silly ponytail? Hopefully for West Ham, by the time that happens survival will be secure and they can coast in for the remainder of the season. The additional signings of Matt Jarvis and Yossi Benayoun will go a long way toward insuring that happens. Neither of these guys is going to set the world on fire, but they're smart, modest buys and Benayoun is an old crowd favorite who should excel away from the rarified air of the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea. 

6. Swansea - How a team loses Brendan Rodgers, Gylfi Sigurdson, and Scott Sinclair and plays football that is arguably even more eye pleasing and attacking than last year's vintage is beyond me. Granted, the season is young, but Michael Laudrup is pulling a Spanish Arsene Wenger and importing all sorts of young, exciting Iberian talent, and he's doing it for a steal. Chico, Michu, Jonathan de Guzman, and Pablo Hernandez have all arrived in Wales and their combined cost is something like 14 million pounds. To put that in perspective, Steven Fletcher alone cost Sunderland 14 million pounds. Steven Fletcher is not worth 14 million pounds and I'm guessing that by the end of the season Chico, Michu, de Guzman, and Hernandez are worth much, much more. 14 Million pounds for Steven Fletcher?! Steven Fletcher?! Jesus. 

7. Steven Fletcher - See above.

8. Dimitar Berbatov - Berbatov sneaks on to the Winner's List because he found a way around the log jam that is Manchester United's strike force and landed at a club where he will, in all likelihood, be the first name on the team sheet most matches. Additionally, Berbatov will be reunited with a manager who loves and values him and will allow him to move his collection of Sartre, Camus, and Marcel into the locker room, smoke his Gauloises on the sideline during training sessions, and sip espresso from an impossibly tiny cup at press conferences.  

9. Romelu Lukaku - Gets out from behind Fernando "Delicious Face" Torres. Can go Beast Mode at West Brom. 

Push:

Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal - I don't know what to make of these three sides and their efforts this transfer window. All three made notable acquisitions, lost important players, and pulled the trigger on some head scratchers. Of the three, I'm most inclined to worry about Arsenal simply because no one seems to have told Arsene Wenger that he still needs players across the back. Also, what the hell happened to the truckloads of cash that United and Barcelona dumped into Arsenal's coffers? If you sell your talisman, you've got to make a marquee signing...don't you? Anyone? 

Losers: 

1. Liverpool - Liverpool continues to fuck up everything it touches. Seriously. Liverpool is that kid from elementary school who had really thick glasses at far too young an age, two inhalers, and a perpetually runny nose. Your teacher would say something like, "If everyone has out his/her science textbook in ten seconds then we'll all play Heads Up Seven Up after the lesson!" Everyone scrambles to pull out his/her science book, shuts up, and sits attentive and ready for the lesson. Then the teacher says, "Almost, class! Maybe next time." Then everyone turns around and Liverpool is fumbling with his English book and dripping snot on the sleeve of his sweatshirt. The whole class moans in unison, "Liverpoooooool!" 

Not only did liverpool fail to address any of the issues they failed to address last transfer window, but they offloaded all of the failed answers to the issues they previously failed to address. Make sense? All that's important here is the word "fail." It's becoming synonymous with Liverpool no matter who takes the reins or puts on the shirt. The Clint Dempsey situation was epically bumbled and Liverpool seem to be the most blamable bumblers. How do you not sign a twenty goal scorer who is practically begging to play for you and costs seven million pounds less than Steven Fletcher? Liverpoooooool! 

2. Fulham - It pains me to write this, but The Cottagers may be in for a long season. I'm a huge Clint Dempsey fan, but I think he is and was replaceable, especially with signings like Berbatov and Mladen Petric providing more attacking play farther up the field. What worries me, and by "worries me" I mean scares the shit out of me, is who is going to replace Moussa Dembele? Martin Jol should get a Football Nobel for moving Dembele back into the midfield. He's an incredible combination of skill, grace, guile, power, vision, and speed and he's still just a kid. I get that when a club like Tottenham comes along and whips out the checkbook and you're a club like Fulham, you have a price, but it's not like no one saw this coming and it would have been nice to have a Plan B. Side note: Kieron Richardson is not Plan B.

3. Any Combination of Geoff Cameron, Charlie Adam, Steven N'Zonzi, and Maurice Edu - Stoke signed an entire team of midfielders in the transfer window, many of whom play essentially the same role, and they offloaded virtually none of the midfielders they already had who play essentially the same role as the guys they just signed...who play essentially the same role. Did I say that already? All four of the new guys are more than capable Stoke caliber players. Who wastes away on the bench?

4. QPR - The Hoops have an incredible team...if it were 2005. With the exception of Junior Hoilett, this is a side that is well past its sell by date. Robert Green, Andy Johnson, Jose Bosingwa, Park Ji-Sung, Julio Cesar, and Ryan Nelsen were all brought in this transfer window. Are any of these guys part of Mark Hughes' future plans for the club? Do his future plans for the club involve soft foods and sponge baths? Did Hughes have to see Robert Green play in person before he realized he was terrible? Maybe QPR is strapped for cash and they always have team dinners at the same place and maybe that place offers a seniors' discount. Otherwise, I'm flummoxed. Remember when Sparky said he left Fulham because they weren't ambitious enough? Hilarious.

5. Aston Villa - The Villains have to be relegation candidates now, don't they? They singed some good young players, but from where I'm sitting, they lack the established players needed to keep them from a relegation scrap come April. Alex McLeish has to be the most hated man in Birmingham. 

6. Wigan - Every year they make this list and every year they find a way make it not mean much. Roberto Martinez is managing a side of six pub players, a few Special Olympians, three nuns, an Orangutan, five trapeze artists, and one of those plastic silhouettes used to make a wall on the training pitch. And they still stay up every year. Greatest. Manager. Ever.