2013/14 Premier League Preview

I'm late to the party on this one having spent the week chasing down a living, writing for other outlets that have *gasp!* deadlines, and trying desperately to divine what exactly is going to happen in the Premier League this season.

Direct deposit hit the bank on Tuesday.

Cottagers Confidential has its posts.

I have absolutely no idea.

Two out of three ain't bad?

To compound my inability to make sense of all the managerial ins and outs, player comings and goings, and run-of-the-mill transfer window intrigues, I recently finished reading a very good, very thorough book by Chris Anderson and David Sally called The Numbers Game. If you haven't read it, definitely pick it up. It's an engaging read and supports, argues, and distills further some of the arguments presented by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski in Soccernomics. 

It's all regressions and standard deviations and valuations and various other permutations of that mythical language some call "math", but what hit me like a ton of bricks is Anderson and Sally's argument that soccer, even at the highest level, in any given match, is basically 50% chance. They cite something called the Poisson distribution and go on about Prussian horses, all of which is very interesting and informative, but did nothing to re-inflate me after learning that picking a winner in a top flight match is little more than a coin flip. How on earth can anyone pick a champion before any of the 38 matches in a team's season have been played? Before the summer transfer window has closed? Before the winter transfer window has even opened? Before Ryan Shawcross has caused a compound tib/fib fracture of your team's star striker? Before Luis Suarez has bitten someone else, someone who might be playing in another league as we speak because remember that thing I just wrote about the transfer windows and their closing and opening?!

Basically, anyone who predicts with confidence what will happen in the Premier League this season, and anyone who ridicules you for your predictions, is full of shit. That won't stop me from gloating though if I get it right. On to the predictions!

As I've said before, the Premier League is a contest to get into the top four spots and avoid the bottom three. Everything else is just window dressing. You can name your best friends and your worst enemies, but most people you know fall somewhere in between. If you're arguing, for example, whether West Ham will finish 14th or 15th, you're wasting your time. 50% chance is probably the difference between 17th and 5th.

My top four:

1. Chelsea - This is actually a pretty popular pick. Jose Mourinho, the Prodigal Son, has returned to Daddy Roman's loving fold more tempered, savvy, and insightful after years abroad and a little bit of humble pie served up courtesy of Iker Casillas and Sergio Ramos. He's new - but not really - and he's inheriting an expensively assembled side of world class soccer players who seem a good mix of young and old.

"To win Premier League second first time of asking would be...fantastic."

My one concern, were I a Chelsea supporter, is who is chosen to lead the line. In the preseason, Mourinho often opted to use a 4-2-3-1 formation with a lone striker making runs to the corners while Victor Moses, Eden Hazard, Oscar, and Juan Mata cut toward the center of the opposition's defense. The "1" in this system is currently a three way competition between Demba Ba, Fernando Torres, and Romelu Lukaku.

Not being sentimental, I think Mourinho would like to throw Lukaku in feet first, but Torres has cost previous managers their jobs and Abramovich may still be clinging to the illusion that he can squeeze some sort of value out of the ludicrous fee he paid for Torres in 2011.

I have to think Roman has learned his lesson and that Mourinho wouldn't be back unless an understanding had been reached between he and the Chelsea owner. With a dominant central striker; the plethora of attacking talent Chelsea has in midfield; strong holding midfielders; a steely back line; and the helmeted hero in goal, I think Chelsea could be poised to bring the trophy back to Stamford Bridge.

2. Manchester City - One of the other tenets of The Numbers Game is that he who spends wins. Sheikh Mansour has certainly spent and with the arrivals of Stevan Jovetic, Alvaro Negredo, Fernandinho, and Jesus Navas, that trend is clearly continuing apace. I literally cannot fathom having the options Manuel Pellegrini has when writing names on the team sheet and that sort of depth of quality has to produce enough wins for second, doesn't it? Doesn't it?!

Pellegrini is much more low key than Roberto Mancini is and the deflection of attention off the sideline and onto the pitch may actually benefit Manchester City's menagerie of Goldfingers. I put City at second mostly because Pellegrini is new and has admitted he will need to adjust to the Premier League game. Also, I have a visceral reaction to so much expensively assembled talent. Also, also, Human Rights Watch just released a report suggesting that the Sheikh Mansour is using Manchester City's positive brand equity to draw attention away from the human rights abuses his government perpetrates in the United Arab Emirates. So there's that.

3. Manchester United - No one wants to be the guy who follows a legend. You want to be the guy who follows the guy who follows the legend. David Moyes apparently did not get this memo and I can't see anything but a rough season ahead for the Red Devils' new manager.

With the caveat that there are 1 1/4 transfer windows still to go, United have only made one marquee signing in Wilfried Zaha and are, frankly, embarrassing themselves with their continued pursuit of Cesc Fabregas. Moyes appears desperate to sign a creative tux-wearer in midfield and to do so in the sort of flamboyant style that gets the collective Old Trafford heart all aflutter. But his continued failure to do so is raising alarm bells and distracting Moyes from the very real possibility that said creative tux-wearer is already in the side in the form of Shinji Kagawa. C'mon Moyes, act like you've been here before! A little confidence, imperturbability, and je ne sais quoi go a long way.

Additionally, there's the inconvenient fact that Wayne Rooney wants out in the worst way and would seemingly love to find himself in the jersey of one of United's worst rivals. I can't see this situation resolving itself until Rooney has been shown the door. In other words, don't expect much of him in a United jersey at all this campaign. How many of Robin Van Persie's goals came from Rooney directly? Or even indirectly by runs Rooney made to create space? Losing your talisman, even with an heir apparent banging 'em in like it's going out of style, is no small thing.

Anything less than the league trophy is a disappointment for United fans. This isn't the composed we're-taking-Van Persie-from-Arsenal-and-there's-nothing-you-can-do-about-it United of last year's vintage. This is the make-eyes-at-and-get-rejected-by-Fabregas-while-Rooney-throws-a-tantrum-and-Moyes-complains-about-the-fixture-list-because-that's-what-Ferguson-would-have-done-but-it-doesn't-come-off-as-ornery-just-pathetic-because-Moyes-Isn't-Ferguson United.

Jesus, I'm going to have to get used to using the space bar again.

4. Arsenal - I desperately want this to be the year Arsenal finishes outside the top four and everyone finally realizes - and by "everyone" I mean Arsenal supporters - that Arsene Wenger has run his course. However, with the ongoing sagas surrounding Gareth Bale and Luis Suarez and the fact that Arsenal may still pull off one of these huge money deals they finally seem willing to make, I can't quite see them disintegrating and crashing in a glorious puffy coated, referee blaming, pass for passing's sake blaze of glory, although it would be delicious fun to watch. I'd pop popcorn and invite friends over.

Arsenal actually find themselves in arguably the most stable situation of any of the big name sides and there's still the possibility that a game-changing, big money signing may darken the door at the Emirates. Regardless, I see Arsenal going apeshit for 4th once again. God love 'em.

On to the relegation frontrunners!

It seems absurd to list them 18th through 20th because they're all going to wind up in the same place. But so does your food, and I'm not one to mix my beef tenderloin, kale salad, malbec, and chocolate tartufo in a blender and chug it. Let's be civilized, for crying out loud.

18. Hull - I just don't see it happening. Even though Steve Bruce's side have recently signed poor man's Moussa Dembele, Tom Huddelstone and have added the likes of Danny Graham and Maynor Figueroa, I don't think it's going to be enough to keep the Tigers in the Premier League, regardless of whether or not the league eventually relents and allows them to call themselves "The Tigers". Relegated means relegated even if you pronounce it "Tigers". Steve Bruce to be sacked in a panic firing around about the same time Ian Holloway loses his job. And speaking of Ian Holloway...

19. Crystal Palace - Palace rode Wilfried Zaha all the way to the Premier League and they'll ride his absence all the way to the League Championship. In the meantime, Ian Holloway, ladies and gentlemen! Enjoy him while he lasts.

20. Stoke City - As an American, I feel I'm contractually obligated to like Stoke, but as a fan of the Beautiful Game, they make me want to gouge my eyes out Oedipus Rex style.

Mark Hughes: Like this, but instead of gold, imagine poo.

Speaking of mythology, let's talk about Midas's lesser known brother, Mark Hughes. Everything Midas touched turned to gold and he eventually became so miserable, alone, thirsty, and hungry that he begged Dionysus to take the golden touch away. Everything Mark Hughes touches turns into a steaming mound of excrement and he's eventually fired for turning something that was once at least functional into a steaming mound of excrement.

Some would say Stoke City already are that so maybe the Mark Hughes touch will work in reverse. All I've seen so far is a protracted flirtation with Mame Biram Diouf that ended in rejection. Yes, that Mame Biram Diouf.



Dark horse table climber:

Swansea City - Look out for Michael Laudrup's side this season. The Wales club is quietly enjoying an unparalleled succession of managers with essentially the same soccer philosophy and are becoming eponymous with passing, fluid, attractive soccer. Laudrup has enhanced his League Cup winning side with the signings of Jordi Amat, Alejandro Pozuelo, Jonjo Shelvey, and Wilfried Bony. If he can make it through the remaining transfer tomfoolery with Ashley Williams still in all white, Swansea could be in Europe next season.

Dark horse table plunger:  

Until about twenty four hours ago, I had Fulham in this unenviable position. With the signing of Darren Bent and more signings promised (please, please, please make this true). I can't see the Cottagers slipping into a relegation scrap. This leaves me flummoxed and admittedly without a clear answer. If I had to pick, I'd say Norwich because, you know...canaries, but I could also see Cardiff dipping into the bottom three to make it a perfect three for three yoyo act. Or at least a two and Mark Hughes. Could be a good name for a drink?

Breakout Performers:

Kevin Mirallas - The kid was on fire at the end of last season and showed no signs of slowing down in the friendlies leading up to this season. With Roberto Martinez at the helm at Everton, Mirallas could benefit from the sort slick passing and dynamic movement the Spaniard preaches.

Coutinho -  He was very bright last season but was often overshadowed by Luis Suarez's brilliance and Luis Suarez's insanity. He as the technical ability, pace, and creativity to make headlines on Merseyside if he doesn't get too wrapped up in a competition to make the KOP forget about Suarez.

Daniel Sturridge -  See above.

Jozy Altidore - Anyone who's watched the US play recently knows that the kid is playing like a house on fire. He'll be anxious to prove that his time with Hull was the fluke rather than his time with AZ Alkmaar.

There are certainly more, but if you name everyone it's sort of cheating, isn't it? Also, how many words is this now? If you've made it this far, thank you and go buy yourself a beer for which I will pay you back should our paths ever cross.

For now, good night to all and to all a good night! One more sleep until Premier League Day.

The North London Derby Prediction

Arsene Wenger earlier this week stated that Arsenal make no special preparations to face superlative players. Arsenal suddenly make so much more sense to me.

In Soccernomics, by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski, the argument is made that innovative advantages do not live in perpetuity. In other words, if I show up to our office or worksite or lab or *ahem* soccer league with an innovative and effective way of doing the same old thing, I will enjoy a substantial advantage over my opponents for as long as it takes my opponents to either counter my innovation with an innovation of their own or to simply start doing the same thing that I once did so uniquely, and even potentially improve upon my methods.

The case study they use to illustrate said point? Arsene Wenger.

Kuper and Syzmanski are able to pinpoint the exact moment Wenger was no longer "The Professor" and simply became "Wenger." That exact moment? 2006.

This is an image from the near future...like tomorrow

Look, I appreciate Wenger and his very French very stubborn insistence that his methods are not flawed. I appreciate his ability to find young talent and polish it into professional class. I find the brand of football Arsenal plays to be mostly pleasing to the eye (I can do this because I'm not an Arsenal fan and I'll never want to kill myself when they can't play Any. Other. Way. even when they need a goal in the 93rd minute). I can even endure Wenger's constant diffusion of responsibility for his team's inability to do anything other than qualify for the Champions League and get knocked out of domestic cup competitions. I find his peanut butter mouth accent charming, his ridiculous coat ridiculous,  and I kind of dig the fact that he was boning down with an Algerian female rapper half his age...allegedly.

What I enjoy most though, is his tragic inability to innovate again, the caricature of himself he has become, and the manner in which Arsenal fans have adopted their manager's delusional optimism, an optimism that blames everyone and everything else for their side's failure. I don't mean that as schadenfreude. I don't enjoy Arsenal's failure out of spite, but I do enjoy the morality play the Gunners have become. It's like Aesop's Fables or Animal Farm or Oedipus Rex or This Is Spinal Tap all come to life. Arsenal are a cautionary tale warning against the hubris a novel idea can cultivate.
Gareth Bale is not someone like Ricky Lambert who just happens to be his side's best player. Gareth Bale is in the purplest or purple patches. He's wearing a Barney suit, stomping grapes, and listening to Gogol Bordello's Start Wearing Purple on repeat.

Wenger hasn't planned for him? He's either lying or doing the most Arsene Wenger thing Arsene Wenger has ever done. I'm going with latter.

Prediction: Gareth Bale - 3. Arsenal - 1.    

Holy. Shit.

Well, that happened. And I'm not just talking about the super gay fan art some United supporter has already photoshopped on the internet, although that clearly happened too. Robin Van Persie is on his way to Manchester United. Every United fan in the world right now must feel like every Manchester City fan in the world last year at this time and I'd venture to guess that maybe they're each just a little bit fonder of the Glazers than they were yesterday.

Although the Manchester clubs are clearly in an arms race (feet race?) for the Premier League title this year, I don't quite believe that the league is down to a two team fight. Depending on how Arsene Wenger invests the $44 million dollars he's reportedly getting from the RVP deal, Arsenal could make a  run at some silverware this season. A deal for Fernando Llorente is already rumored to be in the works.

It's going to take me a while to wrap my mind around what exactly this means for the league and United and City and Arsenal, but I do have some initial thoughts.

1. Someone please put Dimitar Berbatov on suicide watch. Seriously. The vampiric Bulgarian is still on the books at United and now even his Capital One Cup starts have been snatched from his cigarette stained hands. Rooney, Chicharito, Welbeck, and Van Persie?! Jesus.

2. Nicklas Bendtner is probably over the moon right now because Nicklas Bendtner is Nicklas Bendtner's biggest fan and Nicklas Bendtner probably thinks this is a great chance for Nicklas Bendtner  to finally take the reins at The Emirates.

3. How do United line up this season? You pay $44 million for a guy, that guy is going to play (unless that guy is Dimitar Berbatov). Does Rooney finally shed his last semblance as a striker and operate in midfield behind a front three? I can't see United playing a 4-3-3 all season, especially without a proven destroyer in the middle of the park. And if Rooney does play a midfield role, where the hell does Kagawa play?

4. Arsene Wenger is either incredibly shrewd and that Llorente deal is going to get done as soon as the ink dries on RVP's sale, or he's essentially ceded this year's title challenge to one of the Manchester clubs and will invest his recently acquired truckloads of cash in talented youth players who most likely speak French. If it's the latter, Arsenal fans are going to have to do some serious self delusion (they're good at this) to convince themselves they're anything but a really, really good feeder team. Why else sell your best player to someone you once called a rival?

5. What must it be like living in Manchester right now if you're not a supporter of either City or United? Fuck. My. Life. This would be like the Red Sox and the Yankees both calling the same city home, both with real life fantasy squads, and both at the beginning of the season when expectations haven't yet been muted by injury or results...but in a city with the population of Austin.

6. Andre Villas-Boas is throwing a hissy fit. He has one recognized striker on the books at the moment. City and United both have multiple strikers better than Jermain Defoe who can't get a game.

7. None of this matters and will go down as one of the biggest gaffs in transfer history if RVP succumbs to the injury bug that has plagued him every year of his career, save for last year, and misses huge chunks of time.

8. Lastly, what happens when City and United play one another for the first time and one of them loses? I think that first match is in early December? Can you imagine? It's Manchester in December. If you've never been to Manchester, it isn't exactly a beautiful, sunny city. Did I mention it's December? You wake up with a massive hangover. Your team, a team you've supported since you were a little boy, has just lost to a team and a group of supporters you hate with the white hot intensity of a thousand suns. Despite spending Scrooge McDuck volumes of cash, you're second best. Did I mention you still live in Manchester? You feel helpless, alone, listless, and defeated. Next week's fixture against Who Gives a Shit FC means nothing to you even if your team wins by twenty goals. You roll out of bed and mutter something to the wife. You find a stale scone in the kitchen and sit at the breakfast table. You chew dispassionately and contemplate your erectile dysfunction as you stare out the window into the dreary, winter sky. You've felt low before, but never this low; never this defeated....aaaaaaaand scene.